2026-02-032026-02-032026-01-21FERREIRA, Luandra Caroline Veloso. Mudanças no regime de chuvas e implicações para a erosão hídrica na bacia do Tapajós. Orientador: Carlos Eduardo Aguiar de Souza Costa. 2026. 54 f. Trabalho de Curso (Bacharelado em Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental) – Faculdade de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, Campus Universitário de Tucuruí, Universidade Federal do Pará, Tucuruí, 2026. Disponível em: https://bdm.ufpa.br/handle/prefix/9152. Acesso em:.https://bdm.ufpa.br/handle/prefix/9152This study aimed to analyze the present and future behavior of rainfall patterns and the erosive potential of precipitation in the Tapajós River Basin (BHRT), considering different climatic contexts. Historical precipitation data from ten rain gauge stations distributed throughout the basin were used, as well as climate projections from the MIROC5 model for the future scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Rainfall variability was assessed using the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), while the erosive potential of rainfall was estimated from empirical equations adjusted to regional conditions, with emphasis on the adoption of the equation by Morais et al. (1991). The spatial analysis of the average annual erosivity was performed using the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. The results for the present period showed an alternation between extremely wet and extremely dry years in all stations analyzed, indicating high climatic variability in the BHRT. It was observed that the highest monthly erosivity values occurred during the rainy season, generally concentrated between November and March in Mato Grosso and between January and May in stations located in the Amazon. In future scenarios, the seasonal pattern of erosivity was maintained, but with an intensification of maximum values, especially in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The IAC analysis indicated an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme events, with a greater recurrence of severe droughts in some stations and an intensification of rainy episodes in others, highlighting spatial contrasts within the basin. The relationship between the IAC and erosivity showed consistency throughout the analyzed periods, indicating that years classified as extremely wet tend to have a greater number of months with high erosivity, while extremely dry years predominantly concentrate months with low erosive potential. Spatial interpolation revealed a greater concentration of erosivity in the western and northern portions of the BHRT, associated with higher volumes and intensities of precipitation. The main finding of the study indicates that, although the seasonal rainfall pattern is maintained in future scenarios, there is a tendency for intensification of the erosive potential, especially in the RCP 8.5 scenario, increasing the risks of water erosion in the Tapajós Basin.Acesso AbertoErosividadeIACMudanças climáticasIDWTapajósErosivityClimate changeCNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA SANITARIA::RECURSOS HIDRICOSCNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::GEOMORFOLOGIA::CLIMATOLOGIA GEOGRAFICATrabalho de Curso - Graduação - MonografiaAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazil